Infinera buying Coriant will bring welcome consolidation

Infinera is to purchase privately-held Coriant for $430 million. The deal will effectively double Infinera’s revenues, add 100 new customers and expand the systems vendor’s product portfolio.

Infinera's CEO, Tom FallonBut industry analysts, while welcoming the consolidation among optical systems suppliers, highlight the challenges Infinera faces making the Coriant acquisition a success.   

“The low price reflects that this isn't the best asset on the market,” says Sterling Perrin, principal analyst, optical networking and transport at Heavy Reading. “They are buying $1 of revenue for 50 cents; the price reflects the challenges.”   

Benefits 

According to Perrin, there are still too many vendors facing "brutal price pressures" despite the optical industry being mature. Removing one vendor that has been cutting prices to win business is good news for the rest. 

For Infinera, the acquisition of Coriant promises three main benefits, as outlined by its CEO, Tom Fallon, during a briefing addressing the acquisition. 

The first is expanding its vertically-integrated business model across a wider portfolio of products. Infinera develops its own optical technology: its indium-phosphide photonic integrated circuits (PICs) and accompanying coherent DSPs that power its platforms. Having its own technology differentiates the optical performance of its platforms and helps it achieve leading gross margins of over 40 percent, said Fallon.

Exploiting the vertical integration model will be a central part of the Coriant acquisition. Indeed, the company mentioned vertical integration 21 times in as many minutes during its briefing outlining the deal. Infinera expects to deliver industry-leading growth and operating margins once it exploits the benefits of vertical integration across an expanded portfolio of platforms, said Fallon.

Having a seat at the table with the largest global service providers to strategise about where their business is going will be invaluable

Buying Coriant also gives Infinera much-needed scale. Not only will Infinera double its revenues - Coriant’s revenues were about $750 million in 2017 while Infinera’s were $741 million for the same period - but it will expand its customer base including key tier-one service providers and webscale players. According to Fallon, the newly combined company will include nine of the top 10 global tier-one service providers and the six leading global internet content providers.

Infinera admits it has struggled to break into the tier-one operators and points out that trying to enter is an expensive and time-consuming process, estimated at between $10 million to $20 million each time. “[Now, with Coriant,] having a seat at the table with the largest global service providers to strategise about where their business is going will be invaluable,” said Fallon. 

Sterling Perrin of Heavy Reading The third benefit Infinera gains is an expanded product portfolio. Coriant has expertise in layer 3 networking, in the metro core with its mTera universal transport platform as well as SDN orchestration and white box technologies. Heavy Reading’s Perrin says Coriant has started development of a layer-3 router white box for edge applications.

Combining the two companies also results in a leading player in data centre interconnect.

“Coriant expands our portfolio, particularly in packet and automation where significant network investment is expected over the next decade,” said Fallon. The deal is happening at the right time, he said, as operators ramp spending as they undertake network transformation. 

Infinera will pay $230 million in cash - $150 million up front and the rest in increments - and a further $200 million in shares for Coriant. The company expects to achieve cost savings of $250 million between 2019 and 2021 by combining the two firms, $100 million in 2019 alone. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2018. 

If a company is going to put that integrated product into their network, it’s a full-blown RFP process which Infinera may or may not win

Challenges 

Industry analysts, while seeing positives for Infinera, have concerns regarding the deal.  

A much-needed consolidation of weaker vendors is how George Notter, an analyst at the investment bank, Jefferies, describes the deal. For Infinera, however, continuing as before was not an option. Heavy Reading’s Perrin agrees: ”Infinera has been under a lot of pressure; their core business of long-haul has slowed.”

The deal brings benefits to Infinera: scale, complementary product sets, and the promise of being able to invest more in R&D to benefit its PIC technology, says Notter in a research note.

Gaining customers is also a key positive. “Infinera is really excited about getting the new set of customers and that is what they are paying for,” says Vladimir Kozlov, CEO of LightCounting Market Research. “However, these customers were gained by pricing products at steep discounts.” 

What is vital for Infinera is that it delivers its upcoming 2.4-terabit Infinite Capacity Engine 5 (ICE5) optical engine on time. The ICE5 is expected to ship in early 2019. In parallel, Infinera is developing its ICE6 due two years later. Infinera is developing two generations of ICE designs in parallel after being late to market with its current 1.2-terabit optical engine. 

Infinera is really excited about getting the new set of customers and that is what they are paying for

But even if the ICE5 is delivered on time, upgrading Coriant's platforms will be a major undertaking. “It sounds like they are going to fit their optical engines in all of Coriant’s gear; I don’t see how that is going to happen anytime quickly,” says Perrin.

Customers bought Coriant's equipment for a reason. Once upgraded with Infinera’s PICs, these will be new products that have to undergo extensive lab testing and full evaluations.  

Perrin questions how moving customers off legacy platforms to the new will not result in the service providers triggering a new request-for-proposal (RFP). “If a company is going to put that integrated product into their network, it’s a full-blown RFP process which Infinera may or may not win,” says Perrin. “Infinera talked a lot about the benefits of vertical integration but they didn’t really address the challenges and the specific steps they would take to make that work.”

LightCounting's Vladimir KozlovLightCounting’s Kozlov also questions how this will work. 

“The story about vertical integration and scaling up PIC production is compelling, but how will they support Coriant products with the PIC?” he says. “Will they start making pluggable modules internally? Will Coriant’s customers be willing to move away from the pluggables and get locked into Infinera’s PICs? Do they know something that we don’t?”

While Infinera is a top five optical platform supplier globally it hasn’t dominated the market with its PIC technologies, says Perrin. “Even if they technically pull off the vertical integration with the Coriant products, how much is that going to win business for them?” he says. “It is one architecture in a mix that has largely gone to pluggables.”

Transmode 

Infinera already has experience acquiring a systems vendor when it bought in 2015 metro-access player, Transmode. Strategically, this was a very solid acquisition, says Perrin, but the jury is still out as to its success. 

“The integration, making it work, how Transmode has performed within Infinera hasn’t gone as well as they wanted,” says Perrin. “That said, there are some good opportunities going forward for the Transmode group.” 

Infinera also had planned to integrate its PIC technology within Transmode’s products but it didn't make economic sense for the metro market. There may also have been pushback from customers that liked the Transmode products, says Perrin: “With Coriant it looks like they really are going to force the vertical integration.” 

Infinera acknowledges the challenges ahead and the importance of overcoming them if it is to secure its future. 

“Given the comparable sizes of each company’s revenues and workforce, we recognise that integration will be challenging and is vital for our ultimate success,” said Fallon.