Reporting the optical component & module industry

LightCounting recently published its six-monthly optical market research covering telecom and datacom. Gazettabyte interviewed Vladimir Kozlov, CEO of LightCounting, about the findings.

When people forecast they always make a mistake on the timeline because they overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate in the long term

Q: How would you summarise the state of the optical component and module industry?

VK: At a high level, the telecom market is flat, even hibernating, while datacom is exceeding our expectations. In datacom, it is not only 40 and 100 Gig but 10 Gig is growing faster than anticipated. Shipments of 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) [modules] will exceed 1GbE this year.

The primary reason is data centre connectivity - the 'spine and leaf' switch architecture that requires a lot more connections between the racks and the aggregation switch - that is increasing demand. I suspect it is more than just data centres, however. I wouldn't be surprised if enterprises are adopting 10GbE because it is now inexpensive. Service providers offer Ethernet as an access line and use it for mobile backhaul.    

Can you explain what is causing the flat telecom market?

Part of the telecom 'hibernation' story is the rapidly declining SONET/SDH market. The decline has been expected but in fact it had been growing up till as recently as two years ago. First, 40 Gigabit OC-768 declined and then the second nail in the coffin was the decline in 10 Gig sales: 10GbE is all SFP+ whereas 0C-192 SONET/SDH is still in the XFP form factor.

The steady dense WDM module market and the growth in wireless backhaul are compensating for the decline in SONET/SDH market as well as the sharp drop this year in FTTx transceiver and BOSA (bidirectional optical sub assembly) shipments, and there is a big shift from transceivers to BOSAs.  

LightCounting highlights strong growth of 100G DWDM in 2013, with some 40,000 line card port shipments expected this year. Yet LightCounting is cautious about 100 Gig deployments. Why the caution?

We have to be cautious, given past history with 10 Gig and 40 Gig rollouts.

If you look at 10 Gig deployments, before the optical bubble (1999-2000) there was huge expected demand before the market returned to normality, supporting real traffic demand. Whatever 10 Gig was installed in 1999-2000 was more than enough till 2005. In 2006 and 2007 10 Gig picked up again, followed by 40 Gig which reached 20,000 ports in 2008. But then the financial crisis occurred and the 40 Gig story was interrupted in 2009, only picking up from 2010 to reach 70,000 ports this year.

So 40 Gig volumes are higher than 100 Gig but we haven't seen any 40 Gig in the metro. And now 100 Gig is messing up the 40G story.

The question in my mind is how much metro is a bottleneck today? There may be certain large cities which already require such deployments but equally there was so much fibre deployed in metropolitan areas back in the bubble. If fibre cost is not an issue, why go into 100 Gig? The operator will use fibre and 10 Gig to make more money.    

CenturyLink recently announced its first customer purchasing 100 Gig connections - DigitalGlobe, a company specialising in high-definition mapping technology - which will use 100 Gig connectivity to transfer massive amounts of data between its data centers. This is still a special case, despite increasing number of data centers around the world.

There is no doubt that 100 Gig will be a must-have technology in the metro and even metro-access networks once 1GbE broadband access lines become ubiquitous and 10 Gig will be widely used in the access-aggregation layer. It is starting to happen.

So 100 Gigabit in the metro will happen; it is just a question of timing. Is it going to be two to three years or 10-15 years? When people forecast they always make a mistake on the timeline because they overestimate the impact of new technology in the short term and underestimate in the long term.    

LightCounting highlights strong sales in 10 Gig and 40 Gig within the data centre but not at 100 Gig. Why?

If you look at the spine and leaf architecture, most of the connections are 10 Gig, broken out from 40 Gig optical modules. This will begin to change as native 40GbE ramps in the larger data centres.

If you go to super-spine that takes data from aggregation to the data centre's core switches, there 100GbE could be used and I'm sure some companies like Google are using 100GbE today. But the numbers are probably three orders of magnitude lower than in a spine and leaf layers. The demand for volume today for 100GbE is not that high, and it also relates to the high price of the modules.

Higher volumes reduce the price but then the complexity and size of the [100 Gig CFP] modules needs to be reduced as well. With 10 Gig, the major [cost reduction] milestone was the transition to a 10 Gig electrical interface. It has to happen with 100 Gig and there will be the transition to a 4x25Gbps electrical interface but it is a big transition. Again, forget about it happening in two-three years but rather a five- to 10-year time frame.

I suspect that one reason for Google offerings of 1Gbps FTTH services to a few communities in the U.S. is to find out what these new application are, by studying end-user demand

You also point out the failure of the IEEE working group to come up with a 100 GbE solution for the 500m-reach sweet spot. What will be the consequence of this?  

The IEEE is talking about 400GbE standards now. Go back to 40GbE that was only approved some three years, the majority of the IEEE was against having 40GbE at all, the objective being to go to 100GbE and skip 40GbE altogether. At the last moment a couple of vendors pushed 40GbE. And look at 40GbE now, it is [deployed] all over the place: the industry is happy, suppliers are happy and customers are happy.

Again look at 40GbE which has a standard at 10km. If you look at what is being shipped today, only 10 percent of 40GBASE-LR4 modules are compliant with the standard. The rest of the volume is 2km parts - substandard devices that use Fabry-Perot instead of DFB (distributed feedback) lasers. The yields are higher and customers love them because they cost one tenth as much. The market has found its own solution.

The same thing could happen at 100 Gig. And then there is Cisco Systems with its own agenda. It has just announced a 40 Gig BiDi connection which is another example of what is possible.

What will LightCounting be watching in 2014?

One primary focus is what wireline revenues service providers will report, particularly additional revenues generated by FTTx services.

AT&T and Verizon reported very good results in Q3 [2013] and I'm wondering if this is the start of a longer trend as wireline revenues from FTTx pick up, it will give carriers more of an incentive to invest in supporting those services.

AT&T and Verizon customers are willing to pay a little more for faster connectivity today, but it really takes new applications to develop for end-user spending on bandwidth to jump to the next level. Some of these applications are probably emerging, but we do not know what these are yet. I suspect that one reason for Google offerings of 1Gbps FTTH services to a few communities in the U.S. is to find out what these new application are, by studying end-user demand.

A related issue is whether deployments of broadband services improve economic growth and by how much. The expectations are high but I would like to see more data on this in 2014.