60-second interview with .... Dell'Oro's Jimmy Yu

Market research firm Dell'Oro Group has reported that the global optical transport equipment market in the first half of 2012 shrank 5 percent, to US $6.1 billion. In the latest 60-second interview, Gazettabyte spoke with Jimmy Yu, vice president of optical transport research at Dell’Oro Group.

"For the year, it is going to be a fivefold growth rate [for 100 Gig transport]."

Jimmy Yu, Dell'Oro

Q: That fact that the market is down 5 percent on a year ago. Why is this?

A: There are a few factors. First, the macro-economy in Europe continues to get worse; that causes a slowdown.

A second factor is that in North America there was a decline in the second quarter, which is pretty unusual. Part of it, we think, might be that operators have caught up with a lot of the spending to increase broadband, after adding [to the network] for a couple of good years.

The third issue is that the China market has had a really slow start. And while there has been talk about the Chinese market softening, it seems that the CapEx [capital expenditure] is there for a strong second half.

What categories does Dell'Oro include when it talks about optical transport?

There are two main pieces: WDM [wavelength division multiplexing], both metro and long haul, and the multi-service multiplexer used for aggregation. The third piece, which is really small, is optical switching - optical cross-connect used in the core and lately more so in the metro.

According to Dell'Oro, wavelength division multiplexing was up 5 percent in the first half of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago, due to demand for 40 Gig and 100 Gig. What is happening in these two markets?

At 100 Gig we are at an inflection point where demand growth rates are really high. We've got a doubling in demand and shipments quarter-on-quarter [in the second quarter]. For the year, it is going to be a fivefold growth rate.

Also the 40 Gig is still growing. It has been around for a few years so its growth rate is not as strong [as 100 Gig transport] but it is still a significant part of the market.

Has the market settled on particular modulation scheme, especially at 40 Gig?

For 100 Gig the majority [deployed] is coherent. There is one company at least, ADVA Optical Networking, which is coming out with its direct-detection scheme for 100 Gig. This has now been shipping for one quarter. There is a market for the price point and the lower-span link of direct-detection.

For 40 Gig there is still a mix of modulations. Vendors coming out with 100 Gig coherent are also coming out with 40 Gig coherent options. So coherent at 40 Gig is now approaching half of the total market and is happening pretty quickly.

As for [40 Gig] DQPSK [differential quadrature phase-shift keying] modulation, it is probably a little bit more than DPSK [differential phase-shift keying].

You also report a rise in the adoption of optical packet products and that it contributed close to one-third of the optical market revenues in the first half 2012. Why is that?

The optical packet platform is a wider definition than just packet optical transport systems (P-OTS).

One reason why optical packet is growing is that with  traditional P-OTS, you have cross-connect and switching capabilities in a WDM system so as you go to higher 40 and 100 Gig wavelengths you want some bandwidth management in that system.

Another thing is that people are trying to make the aggregation layer - the traditional SONET/SDH - more Ethernet friendly and MPLS-TP [multiprotocol label switching, transport profile] is gaining traction.

Combined, we are seeing this optical packet market has grown 12 percent year-on-year in the second quarter whereas the overall market has declined.

Dell'Oro said Huawei has 20 percent market share, which other vendors have double-digit market share?

Besides Huawei, the other vendors with double-digit percentage for the quarter - in order - are ZTE, Alcatel-Lucent and Ciena.

Did you see anything in this latest study that was surprising?

There was nothing in this quarter but I saw it last quarter.  The legacy equipment – traditional SONET/SDH – is declining. Most of the market decline for optical is in legacy.

SONET/SDH sales in the second quarter of 2012 declined by 20 percent year-on-year.  It is finally happening: the market is shifting away from SONET/SDH.