60-second interview with Infonetics' Andrew Schmitt

Market research firm Infonetics Research, now part of IHS Inc., has issued its 2014 summary of the global wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) equipment market. Andrew Schmitt, research director for carrier transport networking, in a Q&A with Gazettabyte.

 

Andrew Schmitt

Q: Infonetics claims the global WDM market grew 6% in 2014, to total US $10 billion. What accounted for such impressive growth in 2014?

AS: Primarily North American strength from data centre-related spending and growth in China.

 

Q: In North America, the optical vendors' fortunes were mixed: ADVA Optical Networking, Infinera and Ciena had strong results, balanced by major weakness at Alcatel-Lucent, Fujitsu and Coriant. You say those companies whose fortunes are tied to traditional carriers under-performed. What are the other markets that caused those vendors' strong results?

These three vendors are leading the charge into the data centre market. ADVA had flat revenue, North America saved their bacon in 2014. Ciena is also there because they are the ones who have suffered the least with the ongoing changes at AT&T and Verizon. And Infinera has just been killing it as they haven’t been exposed to legacy tier-1 spending and, despite the naysayers, has the platform the new customers want.

 

"People don’t take big risks and do interesting things to attack flat or contracting markets"

 

Q: Is this mainly a North American phenomenon, because many of the leading internet content providers are US firms?

Yes, but spending from Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in China is starting to scale. They are running the same playbook as the western data centre guys, with some interesting twists.

 

Q. You say the press and investors are unduly fascinated with AT&T's and Verizon's spending. Yet they are the two largest US operators, their sum capex was $39 billion in 2014, and their revenues grew. Are these other markets becoming so significant that this focus is misplaced?  

Growth is what matters.

People don’t take big risks and do interesting things to attack flat or contracting markets. Sure, it is a lot of spend, but the decisions are made and that data is seen - incorporated into people’s thought-process and market opinion. What matters is what changes. And all signs are that these incumbents are trying to become more like the data centre folks.

 

Q. What will be the most significant optical networking trend in 2015?

Cheaper 100 gigabit, which lights up the metro 100 gigabit market for real in 2016.


100 Gig: Is market expectation in need of a reality check?

Recent market research suggests that the 100 Gigabit-per-second (Gbps) era is fast-approaching and that 100Gbps promises to leave the 40Gbps market opportunity in its wake.

 

“It could easily be ten to 15 years before we see 100Gbps in a big way on the public network side”

 

Mark Lutkowitz, Telecom Pragmatics

 

 

 

Infonetics Research, in a published White Paper, says that 100Gbps technology will be adopted at a faster rate than 40Gbps was in its first years, and that the 100Gbps market will begin in earnest from 2013. Indeed this could even be sooner if China, which accounts for half of all 40Gbps ports being shipped, moves to 100Gbps faster than expected.

LightCounting, in its research, describes 100 Gbps optical transmission as a transformational networking technology for carriers, and forecasts that sales of 100Gbps dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) line cards will grow to US $2.3 billion by 2015.

But one research firm, Telecom Pragmatics, is sounding a note of caution. It reports that the 40Gbps market is growing nicely and believes that it could be at least a decade before there is a substantial 100Gbps market.

“100G is not going to kill 40G and, if anything, we are bullish about 40G,” says Mark Lutkowitz, principal at Telecom Pragmatics. “I’m not talking about large volume ramp-up of 40G but there is arguably a ramp-up.”

 

100G Paradox

One reason, not often mentioned, why 40Gbps is being adopted is that it does not require as many networking changes as when 100Gbps technology is deployed. “There is additional compensation [needed] and it is not clear that all the fibres will work with 100G,” says Lutkowitz.

There is also what he calls the ‘100G Paradox’.

The 100Gbps technology will most likely be considered at pinch-points in the operators’ networks. Yet these are the same network pinch-points that were first upgraded to 10Gbps. As a result they are likely to have legacy DWDM systems such that upgrading to 100Gbps is a considerable undertaking. “It is questionable whether these systems can even work with 100G,” he says.

 

"We really think that 40G should be getting a lot more respect than it is getting” 

 

”When you look at service providers they are willing to put up with a whole amount of pain before they buy something, and they will certainly not forklift electronics or fibre - they will only do that as a last resort.” Another attraction of 40Gbps for the operators is its growing maturity - it is a technology that has been available for several years.

 

Costs

Telecom Pragmatics also dismisses the argument made by  component vendors that the market will move to 100Gbps especially if the cost-per-bit of 100G technology declines faster than expected.

“The first cost [point] is ten times 10G and really you need to get to something like six or seven times [the cost of] 10G before you consider 100G,” says Lutkowitz.  But that is not the sole cost. Network protection is needed which means a second system and there are additional networking and operational costs associated with 100Gbps.

Moreover, to whatever extent 40G is deployed, it will put further pressure on 100Gbps as 40Gbps prices decline. “In the 10G market, prices continued to decline and that precluded 40G, now you have 40G - to whatever extent there is deployment - precluding 100G,” says Lutkowitz.

“It could easily be 10 to 15 years before we see 100G in a big way on the public network side,” says Lutkowitz. But he stresses that in the datacenter and for the enterprise, demand for 100Gbps technology will be a different story.

Meanwhile Telecom Pragmatics expects further operator trials at 100Gbps as well as new system announcements from vendors. “But we really think that 40G should be getting a lot more respect than it is getting,” says Lutkowitz. 


BroadLight’s GPON ICs: from packets to apps

What is being announced?

BroadLight has announced its Lilac family of customer premise equipment (CPE) chips that support the Gigabit Passive Optical Network (GPON) standard.

The company claims its GPON devices with be the first to be implemented using a 40nm CMOS process. The advanced CMOS process, coupled with architectural enhancements, will double the devices' processing performance while improving by five-fold the packet-processing capability.  The devices also come with a hardware abstraction layer that will help system vendors tailor their equipment.

 

"Traffic models and service models are not stable, and there are a lot of differences from carrier to carrier"

Didi Ivancovsky, BroadLight

 

 

 

 

Lilac will also act as a testbed for technologies needed for XG-PON, the emerging next generation GPON standard. XG-PON will support a 10 Gigabit-per-second (Gbps) downstream and 2.5Gbps upstream rate, and is set for approval by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in September.

 

Why is this important?

GPON networks are finally being rolled out by carriers after a slow start. Yet the GPON chip market is already mature; Lilac is BroadLight’s third-generation CPE family.

Major chip vendors such as Broadcom and Marvell are also now competing with the established GPON chip suppliers such as BroadLight and PMC-Sierra. “The [big] gorillas are entering [the market],” says Didi Ivancovsky, vice president of marketing at BroadLight.  

BroadLight claims it has 60% share of the GPON CPE chip market. For the central office, where the optical line terminal (OLT) GPON integrated circuits (ICs) reside, the market is split between 40% merchant ICs and 60% FPGA-based designs. BroadLight claims it has over 90% of the OLT merchant IC market.

The Lilac family is Broadlight’s response to increasing competition and its attempt to retain market share as deployments grow.

 

GPON market

US operator Verizon with its FiOS service remains the largest single market in terms of day-to-day GPON deployments. But now significant deployments are taking place in Asia.

“Verizon might still be the largest individual deployer, but China Telecom and China Mobile are catching up fast,” says Jeff Heynen, directing analyst, broadband and video at Infonetics Research. “In fact, the aggregate GPON market in China is now larger than what Verizon has been deploying, given that Verizon’s OLT numbers have really slowed while its optical network terminal (ONT) shipments remain high at some 200,000 per quarter.”

 

“Verizon might still be the largest individual deployer, but China Telecom and China Mobile are catching up fast”

Jeff Heynen, Infonetics Research

 

 

 

 

Chinese operators are deploying both GPON and Ethernet PON (EPON) technologies. According to BroadLight, Chinese carriers are moving from deploying multi-dwelling unit (MDU) systems to single family unit (SFU) ONTs.

An MDU deployment involves bringing PON to the basement of a building and using copper to distribute the service to individual apartments. However such deployments have proved less popular that expected such that operators are favouring an ONT-per-apartment.

“Through this transition, China Telecom and China Unicom are also making the transition to GPON,” says Ivancovsky. “End–to-end prices of EPON and GPON are practically the same,” GPON has a download speed of 2.5Gbps and an upload speed of 1.25Gbps (Gbps) while for EPON it is 1.25Gbps symmetrical. 

China Telecom and China Unicom are deploying GPON is several provinces whereas in major population centres the PON technology is being left unspecified; vendors can propose either the use of EPON or GPON. “This is a big change, really a big change,” says Ivancovsky.

In India, BSNL and a handful of private developers have been the primary GPON deployers, though the Indian market is still in its infancy, says Heynen. Ericsson has also announced a GPON deployment with infrastructure provider Radius Infratel that will involve 600,000 homes and businesses.

“I expect there to be a follow-on tender for BSNL later this year or early next year that will be twice the size of the first tender of 700,000 total GPON lines,” says Heynen. He also expects MTNL to begin deploying GPON early next year.

In other markets, Taiwan’s Chunghwa Telecom has issued its first tender for GPON. Telekom Malaysia is deploying GPON as is Hong Kong Broadband Network (HKBN), while in Australia the National Broadband Network Company will roll-out a 100Mbps fibre-to-the-home network to 90% of Australian premises over eight years working with Alcatel-Lucent.

“Let’s not forget about Europe, which has been basically dormant from a GPON perspective,” adds Heynen. “We now have commitments from France Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, and British Telecom to roll out more FTTH using GPON, which should help increase the overall market, which really was being driven by Telefonica, Portugal Telecom, and Eitsalat.”

Infonetics expects 2010 to be the first year that GPON revenue will exceed EPON revenue: US $1.4 billion worldwide compared to $1.02 billion.  By 2014, the market research firm expects GPON revenue to reach $2.5 billion with EPON revenue - 1.25Gbps and 10Gbps EPON - to be US $1.5 billion. “At this point, China, Japan, and South Korea will be the only major EPON markets with many MSOs also using EPON for FTTH and business services,” says Heynen.

 

What’s been done?

BroadLight offers a range of devices in the Lilac family. It has enhanced the control processing performance of the CPE devices using 40nm CMOS, and has also added more network processor unit (NPU) cores to enhance the ICs’ data plane processing performance.

“It’s been the same story for some time now,” says Heynen. “System-on-chip vendors differentiate themselves on four key aspects: footprint, power consumption, speed and, most importantly, cost”

A key driver for upping the Lilac family’s control processor’s performance is to support the Java programming language and the OSGi Framework, says Ivancovsky.  The OSGi Framework used with embedded systems has yet to be deployed on gateways but is becoming mandatory.  This will enable the CPE gateway to run downloaded applications much as applications stores now complement mobile handsets. 

BroadLight has also doubled to four the on-chip RunnerGrid NPU cores. “Traffic models and service models are not stable, and there are a lot of differences from carrier to carrier” says Ivancovsky. “This [on-chip] flexibility helps us to have a single device that can support many different requirements.”

As an example, Broadlights cites South Korean operator, SK Broadband, which is deploying an ONT supporting two gigabit Ethernet (GbE) ports – one for laptops and the other for the home’s set-top box. Thus a single GPON 2.5Gbps stream is delivered down the fibre and shared between the PON’s 32 or 64 ONTs, with each ONT having two 1GbE links.“The carrier wants to limit the IPTV downstream rate according to the service level agreement,” says Ivancovsky.  Having the network processor as part of the CPE, the carrier can avoid deploying more more expensive NPUs at the central office.

The overall result is a Lilac family rated at 2,000 Dhrystone MIPS (DMIPS) and a packet processing capability of 15 million packets per second (Mpps) compared to BroadLight’s current-generation CPE family of 650-900 DMIPs and 3Mpps.

“Broadlight understands that you have to have a range of chips that provide flexibility across a wide range of CPE and infrastructure types,” says Heynen. The CPE demands of a Verizon differ markedly from those of China Telecom, for example, primarily because average-revenue-per-user expectations are so different. Verizon wants to provide the most advanced integrated CPE, with the ability to do TR-069 remote provisioning and both broadcast and on-demand TV, while China Telecom is concerned with achieving sustained downstream bandwidth, with IPTV being a secondary concern, he says.

Heynen also highlights the devices’ software stack with its open application programming interfaces (APIs) that allow third-party developers to develop applications on top of features already provided in BroadLight’s software stack.

“Residential gateway software stacks used to be dominated by Jungo (NDS). But now chipset companies are developing their own, which helps to reduce licensing costs on a per CPE basis,” says Heynen. “If a silicon vendor can provide a hardware abstraction layer like this, it makes it very attractive to system vendors who need an easy way to customise feature sets for a wide range of customers.”

 

Is the Lilac GPON family fast enough to support XG-PON?

“We are deep in the design of XG-PON end-to-end: one team is working on the OLT and one on the ONT,” says Ivancovsky. “We expect an FPGA prototype very early in 2011.”

The first XG-PON product will be an OLT ASIC rated at 40Gbps: supporting four XG-PON or 16 GPON ports. One XG-PON challenge is developing a 10Gbps SERDES (serialiser/ deserialiser), says Ivancovsky:  “The SERDES in Lilac is a 10Gbps one, a preparation for XG-PON devices.”

Meanwhile, the first XG-PON CPE design will be implemented using an FPGA but the control processor used will be the one used for Lilac. As for data plane processing, NPUs will be added to the OLT design while more NPUs cores will be needed within the CPE device. “The number of cores in the Lilac will not be enough; we are talking about 40Gbps,” says Ivancovsky.

 

Lilac device members

Ivancovsky highlights three particular devices in the Lilac family that will start appearing from the fourth quarter of this year:

  • The BL23530 aimed at GPON single family units with VoIP support. To reduce its cost, a low-cost packaging will be used.
  • The BL23570 which is aimed at the integrated GPON gateway market.
  • The BL23510, a compact 10x10mm IC to be launched after the first two. The chip’s small size will enable it to fit within an SFP form-factor transceiver. The resulting SFP transceiver can be added to connect a DSLAM platform, or upgrade an enterprise platform, to GPON.

“This new system-on-chip is a technology improvement, especially with respect to the residential gateway software layer, which is a requirement among most operators,” concludes Heynen. “But it should be noted this is an addition to, not a replacement for, existing BroadLight chips that solve different infrastructure requirements.”


Wireless backhaul: The many routes to packet

What is being announced?

ECI Telecom has detailed its wireless backhaul offering that spans the cell tower to the metro network. The 1Net wireless backhaul architecture supports traditional Sonet/SDH to full packet transport, with hybrid options in between, across various physical media.

“We can support any migration scheme an operator may have over any type of technology and physical medium, be it copper, fibre or microwave,” says Gil Epshtein, senior product marketing manager, network solutions division at ECI Telecom.

 

 

Why is this important?

Operators are experiencing unprecedented growth in wireless data due to the rise of smart phones and notebooks with 3G dongles for mobile broadband.

Mobile data surpassed voice traffic for the first time in December 2009, according to Ericsson, with the crossover occurring at approximately 140,000 terabytes per month in both voice and data traffic.  According to Infonetics Research, mobile broadband subscribers surpassed digital subscriber line (DSL) subscribers in 2009, and will grow to 1.5 billion worldwide in 2014. By then, there will be 3.6 exabytes (3.6 billion gigabytes) per month of mobile data traffic, with two thirds being wireless video, forecasts Cisco Systems.

“The challenge is that almost all the growth is packet internet traffic, and that is not well suited to sit on the classic TDM backhaul network originally designed for voice,” says Michael Howard, principal analyst, carrier and data center networks at Infonetics Research.  TDM refers to time division multiplexing based on Sonet/SDH where for wireless backhaul T1/E1lines are used. 


“There is a gap between the technology hype and real life”

Gil Epshtein, ECI Telecom

 

 

 

 

 

The fast growth also implies an issue of scale, with the larger mobile operators having many cell sites to backhaul. E1/TI lines are also expensive even if prices are coming down, says Howard: “It is much cheaper to use Ethernet as a transport – the cost per bit is enormously better.”

This is why operators are keen to upgrade their wireless backhaul networks from Sonet/SDH to packet-based Ethernet transport. “But there is a gap between the technology hype and real life,” says Epshtein.  Operators have already invested heavily in existing backhaul infrastructure and upgrading to packet will be costly. The operators also know that projected revenues from data services will not keep pace with traffic growth.

“Operators are faced with how to build out their backhaul infrastructures to meet service demands at cost points that provide an adequate return on investment,” says Glen Hunt, principal analyst, carrier transport and routing at Current Analysis.  Such costs are multi-faceted, he says, on the capital side and the operational side. “Carriers do not want to buy an inexpensive device that adds complexity to network operations which then offsets any capital savings.”

 

“It is much cheaper to use Ethernet as a transport –the cost per bit is enormously better.”

Michael Howard, Infonetics Research

 

To this aim, ECI offers operators a choice of migration schemes to packet-based backhaul.  Its solution supports T1/E1lines and Ethernet frame encapsulation over TDM, Ethernet overlay networks, and packet-only networks (see chart above).

With Ethernet overlay, an Ethernet network runs alongside the TDM network. The two can co-exist within a common network element, what ECI calls embedded Ethernet overlay, or separately using distinct TDM and packet switch platforms. And when an operator adopts all-packet, legacy TDM traffic can be carried over packets using circuit emulation pseudo-wire technology.

“ECI’s offering is significant since it includes all the components and systems necessary to handle nearly any type of backhaul requirement,” says Hunt. The same is true for most of the larger system vendors, he says. However, many vendors integrate third party devices to complete their solutions – ECI itself has done this with microwave. But with 1NET for wireless backhaul, ECI will now offer its own microwave backhaul systems.

According to Infonetics, between 55% and 60% of all backhaul links are microwave outside of North America. And 80% of all microwave sales are for mobile backhaul.  Moreover, Infonetics estimates that 70 to 80% of operator spending on mobile backhaul through 2012 will be on microwave. “Those are the figures that explain why ECI has decided to go it alone,” says Howard. Until now ECI has used products from its microwave specialist partner, Ceragon Networks.

“ECI has all the essential features that the other big players have like Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent, Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei,” says Howard. What is different is that ECI does not supply radio access network (RAN) equipment such as basestations. “It is ok, though, because almost all of the [operator] backhaul tenders separate between RAN and backhaul,” says Howard.

ECI argues that by adopting a technology-agnostic approach, it can address operators’ requirements without forcing them down a particular path.  “Operators are looking for guidance as to which path is best from this transition,” says Epshtein.  There is no one-model fits all. “We have so many exceptions you really need to look on a case-by-case basis.”

In developed markets, for example, the building of packet overlay is generally happening faster. Some operators with fixed line networks have already moved to packet and that, in theory, simplifies upgrading the backhaul to packet. But organisational issues across an operator’s business units can complicate and delay matters, he says.  

And Epshtein cites one European operator that will use its existing network to accommodate growth in data services over the coming years: “It is putting aside the technology hype and looking at the bottom line."

In emerging markets, moving to packet is happening more slowly as mobile users’ income is limited. But on closer inspection this too varies. In Africa, certain operators are moving straight to all-IP, says Ephstein, whereas others are taking a gradual approach.

 

What’s been done?

ECI has launched new products as well as upgraded existing ones as part of its 1NET wireless backhaul offering.

The company has announced its BG-Wave microwave systems. There are two offerings: an all-packet microwave system and a hybrid one that supports both TDM and Ethernet traffic. ECI says that having its own microwave products will allow it to gain a foothold with operators it has not had design wins before.

 

“ECI will need to prove the value of its microwave products with actual field deployments”

Glen Hunt, Current Analysis

 

ECI has announced two additional 9000 carrier Ethernet switch routers (CESR) families: the 9300 and 9600. These have switching capacities and a product size more suited to backhaul. The switches support Layer 3 IP-MPLS and Layer 2 MPLS-TP, as well as the SyncE and IEEE 1588 Version 2 synchronisation protocols.

ECI has also upgraded its XDM multi-service provisioning platform (MSPP) to enable an embedded overlay with Ethernet and TDM traffic supported within the platform.

“When an operator is choosing to add packet backhaul to existing TDM backhaul, typically it is a separate network – they keep voice on TDM and add a second network for packet,” says Howard. This hybrid approach involves adding another set of equipment. “ECI has added functions to existing equipment, which operators may already have, that allows two networks to run over a single set of products.” 

Also included in the solution are ECI’s BroadGate and its Hi-FOCuS multi-service access node (MSAN). This is not for operators to deploy the platform for wireless backhaul but rather those operators that have the MSAN can now use it for backhauling traffic, says Ephstein.  This is useful in dense urban areas and for operators offering wholesale services to other operators. 

All the network elements are controlled using ECI’s LightSoft management system.

“ECI’s solution has the advantage that all the systems use the same operating system and support the same features,” says Hunt. He cites the example of MPLS-TP which is implemented on ECI’s carrier Ethernet and optical platforms.  

“ECI has a full range of platforms that all work together to meet the needs of mobile as well as fixed operator,” says Hunt. “ECI will need to prove the value of its microwave products with actual field deployments.”

 

Operator interest

ECI has secured general telecom wins with large incumbent operators in Western Europe and has been winning business in Eastern Europe, Russia, India and parts of Asia.

ECI’s sweet spot has been its relationship with Tier 2 and Tier 3 operators, says Hunt, and since the company offers broadband access, optical transport, and carrier Ethernet, it can use these successes to help expand into areas such as wireless backhaul.

But wireless backhaul is already a key part of the company’s business, accounting for over 30% of revenues, says Ephstein.  Late last year ECI estimated that it was carrying between 30% and 40% of the mobile backbone traffic in India, a rapidly growing market.

As for 1NET wireless backhaul, ECI has announced one win so far - Israeli mobile operator Cellcom which has selected the 9000 CESR family. “Cellcom shows that ECI can continue to expand its presence in the network - in this case leveraging business Ethernet services to add backhaul,” says Hunt.

In addition one European operator, as yet unnamed, has selected ECI’s embedded overlay. “Several other operators are in various stages of selecting the right option for them,” says Ephstein.  

  •  For some ECI wireless backhaul papers and case studies, click here

 


ROADMs: Set for double-digit growth

A Q&A with Andrew Schmitt, directing analyst, optical at Infonetics Research regarding ROADMs and his report's findings.

 

 

Summary

The wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer (ROADM) equipment market will be the fastest growing optical segment over the next few years, according to Infonetics Research. The market research firm in its ROADM Components Market Outlook report predicts that the segment will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2008 to 2013.

 

Q&A

Q. Can you please help by defining some terms? What is the difference between a wavelength-selective switch (WSS) and a ROADM?

AS: A WSS is a component that can direct individual wavelengths among multiple fibers. They are typically built in asymmetrical configurations, such as a 1x9 or a 9x1 and are used in quantity to build logical larger switches, effectively allowing multiple wavelengths to be switched among several incoming and outgoing fibers.

ROADMs are subsystems composed of these WSS modules but also include EDFA amplifiers, splitters, sometimes arrayed waveguide gratings (AWGs), and control electronics that include power balancing.

 

Q. A ROADM can also be colourless and directionless. What do these terms mean?

AS: For a ROADM to be colourless, it must be capable of dropping wavelengths of the same colour entering the node from both the West and East directions on individual drop ports. Directionless requires that wavelengths added at that node have non-blocking behavior and be capable of being routed either in the West or East direction. Removing these restrictions typically requires more WSSs to be used in the ROADM in place of AWGs, representing a classic flexibility/ cost tradeoff.

 

Q. In the report you split the WSS into two categories: those with up to four ports and those greater than four ports. Why?

AS: That’s really the breaking point of the market according to carriers I spoke with. Originally, four ports was a high end number but since then larger WSS modules have become available. The market has divided into small, which is 1x2 to 1x4 ports, and large, which at this point are 1x9’s.

 

"It is probably the only thing the circuit-loving Bell-heads and the counter-culture IP-bigots can agree on – everybody loves ROADMs."

 

Andrew Schmitt

 

 

 

Q. You say that ROADMs will be the faster growing optical equipment segment. What is motivating operators to deploy?

AS: ROADMs save money, plain and simple. When you use a ROADM, you eliminate the need to do an electrical-optical conversion and the electronics required to support it. It is particularly attractive for IP over WDM configurations, where expensive layer three router ports can be bypassed. Electrical-optical conversion is where the cost is in networks and ROADMs allow any given node to only touch the traffic required at that node. It’s probably the only thing the circuit-loving bell-heads and the counter-culture IP-bigots can agree on – everybody loves ROADMs.

 

Q. Are there regional differences in how ROADMs are being embraced? If so, why?

AS: North America, Japan and Europe have seen the bulk of deployments. But that has started to change with smaller carriers in developing countries adopting ROADM, particularly in Asia Pacific.

 

Q. Did you learn anything that surprised you as part of this research?

I assembled historical estimates of the WSS market back to 2005 through conversations with WSS vendors and equipment makers. Most people were very co-operative. When I was writing the final report, I overlayed historical WSS component revenue with the Infonetics’ ROADM optical equipment revenue we have tracked over the past years, and there was an extremely tight correlation. Where there wasn’t a correlation there was a logical reason behind it – adding more ROADM degrees to existing nodes.

Covering the component market and the equipment market makes the research much better than if I did each market individually. I’ve done a lot of research in the past few years in both technical and financial domains but this was the second most interesting – it was really refreshing to find a big double-digit growth market in optical.

Cisco System’s CEO, John Chambers, has been very public in his goal to grow the company at 15% annually, and I don’t think it is an accident that the Cisco optical group makes ROADM solutions a number one priority. They’ve silently moved up to second in market share for North American WDM, and their ROADM expertise played a big role in this.

The wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) reconfigurable optical add-drop multiplexer (ROADM) equipment market will be the fastest growing optical segment over the next few years, according to Infonetics Research.

The market research firm in its ROADM Components Market Outlook report predicts that the segment will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% from 2008 to 2013.

Andrew Schmitt, directing analyst, optical at Infonetics discusses some of the issues regarding ROADMs and his report findings.


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