A career in technology market analysis

John Lively reflects on a 30-year career.

It was a typical workday in 1989, sitting through a meeting announcing the restructuring of Corning's planar coupler business.

The speaker's final words were, "Lively, you'll be doing forecasting." It changed my life and set my career path for the next 30-plus years.

John Lively, principal analyst at market research firm, LightCounting.

No one grows up with a desire to be a market analyst. Indeed, I didn't ask for the job. What made it possible was an IBM PC and LOTUS 1-2-3 in my marine biology lab in the early 1980s (a story for another time).

After a stop at MIT for an MBA, this led to a job in Corning's fledgling PC support team in 1985. Then it was Corning's optical fibre business cost-modelling fibre-to-the-home networks on a PC, working with Bellcore and General Instrument engineers. From there, it was to forecast market demand for planar couplers in the FTTH market.

In the following decade, I had various market forecasting roles within Corning's optical fibre and photonics businesses.

Each time I tried to put forecasting behind me by taking a marketing or product management job, management said they needed me to return to forecasting due to some crisis or another (thank you, Bernie Ebbers).

In 1999, I had an epiphany. If Corning thinks I'm better at forecasting than anything else, perhaps I should become a professional forecaster in a company whose product is forecasts.

Just then, through fate or coincidence, I received a call from fellow MIT alum Dana Cooperson who said her firm, RHK, was desperate for people and did I know anyone who might be interested?

For the uninitiated, that's code for 'would you be interested in joining us?'.

I joined just in time to enjoy the remaining months of the boom, followed by a bust in 2001. But all the while learning to be a market analyst in a new context. While at Corning, I had been both a producer and procurer of market research. At RHK, I was strictly a producer.

More importantly, there was a direct link between my words and spreadsheets and money coming in. It was exhilarating.

Working remotely

Thanks to the newly deployed cable modem/ HFC technology that I had been cost-modelling a decade earlier, I was working from home.

I have worked from home ever since, and I can say that remote working does work well for some people and jobs.

Some lessons I've learned include:

• Working from home works best if the entire firm, not just a few people, are doing it.
• Home working doesn't mean you can't travel, pandemics notwithstanding.
• Home workers need to have clear deliverables that they can be judged against. Give them responsibility for something tangible, with an unambiguous deadline.
• Requiring time-tracking sheets or online monitoring of home workers is insulting and demotivating.
• Companies must support home workers by investing in quality internet services and conferencing software/ equipment on both sides of the link

Required skills

By joining RHK, I had moved from a Fortune 500 company to one of 100 employees. Over the next two decades, I would move between large and small companies. I prefer small companies because it's clear who contributes to their success and who doesn't. Poor performers have nowhere to hide in a company of six people.

After more than 30 years in the market research arena, I have views on the role of a market analyst and the talents necessary to be a good one.

The goal of market analysis is to find information, analyse it, draw conclusions, then package and communicate it.

Doing market research is like assembling a jigsaw puzzle, from which several pieces are missing. Or, like a chef who must create a healthy, enjoyable meal from an assortment of good and bad raw ingredients.

A technology market analyst should be intellectually curious, have a solid background in sciences and technology, and have broad industry knowledge, i.e., understand the jargon, the tech, and the companies.

The analyst also needs to write concisely and quickly, is fluent in Excel, PowerPoint, and Word, is a great communicator and is approachable, likeable, and outgoing.

Of course, finding all the requisite skills in one person is rare, and larger companies commonly divide duties into specialities like data collection, analysis, and communication.

In small companies, this may not be overt but happens to a degree just the same.

Most importantly, a market analyst must be comfortable with uncertainty.

One never has all the pieces, and you must be OK filling in missing data points via extrapolation, intuition, historical parallels, or other means. And be comfortable admitting your mistakes and adjusting your findings when new data surfaces.

I believe this is why those with a scientific background are better suited to market research than engineers. Scientists are taught scepticism and revision as a way of life, while engineers seek the certainty of the 'right' answer.

Periods of note

Throughout my career, I've lived through interesting times.

Starting in 1985, it was the introduction of the first PCs into Corning and establishing their first email system, electronic newsletter, word processing, and expert-learning systems.

Then, in the mid-1990s working in the early days of amplified DWDM systems and when the EDFA business doubled its output yearly.

Then came the Internet bubble and optical industry boom/bust of 1999-2001, when dozens of companies were founded by a couple of PhDs with a PowerPoint presentation. At one point in 2000, my optical components practice at RHK had over 100 subscribing companies.

It was weird living through an episode that we knew would someday be written about, like the Dutch tulip mania of 1634.

More recently, and I believe, with a more positive outcome, it is/ has been fascinating to watch companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta utilise a globally connected internet to become the first truly global communications, media, and retail companies.

Moreover, these companies transcend national, cultural, and language boundaries, connecting a billion or more users. And in the process, inventing hyperscale data centres, which in turn allow hundreds and thousands of other companies to 'cloudify' as well, extending their global reach.

Of all the innovations and changes taking place today, this is one I will continue to follow with wonder and amazement.

The promise of these companies is so great that I'm hopeful they will become beacons of positive change around the world in the 21st century.

Innovation has been breathtaking in optics. For example, coherent transport, the far-out science stuff of technical talks at my first OFC in 1988, is in commercial use.

We blithely speak of optical transceivers capable of Terabit-per-second speeds without stopping to think how amazing it is that anything, anywhere, could be made to turn off and on again, one TRILLION times a second!

It simply defies human understanding, and yet we make it easy.

A view of now

Today, it's easy to be convinced that things are falling apart, between Russia's war against Ukraine, COVID, economic turmoil, screwed-up supply chains, and populist politicians.

But I take solace that I've seen things like this before and lived through them. As a child, scenes of the Vietnam war were on the news every evening. But finally, there was peace in Vietnam.

In the 1970s, we had an oil embargo and sky-high gas prices. It also ended.

In the 1980s, inflation ran hot, pushing my student loan interest rate to 13%. But I paid it off, and rates came down.

AIDS struck fear and stoked prejudice for years, claiming my aunt and uncle before scientists uncovered its secrets and developed effective treatments.

So it will be with COVID. History shows that humans tire of strife and disease and will work to conquer our worst problems eventually.

Surprises

Two things come to mind regarding industry surprises over the last 30 years.

One is that optical technology keeps advancing. Despite how challenging each new generation seems, bit by bit and idea by idea, the industry collectively comes up with a solution, and the subsequent speed hike is commercialised.

Another is how people find ways to use it no matter how much bandwidth is created. RHK founder, John Ryan, was fond of telling us, "Bandwidth is like cupboard space; it's never left empty for long."

Another surprising thing is how long the interpersonal bonds formed at RHK have lasted.

Though it was just a flash in time, many of those who were there in 2000 remain connected as friends and colleagues more than 20 years later.

Several such alumni work at LightCounting now.

Climate Change

While doing all this, looking backwards and reflecting on change, I couldn't help dwelling on another major problem we face today: climate change.

Forestalling climate change is the one thing I believe where humans are failing. But unfortunately, the causes are so rooted in our global socio-economic systems that citizens and governments are not capable of inflicting the necessary sacrifices on themselves.

I fear the worst-case scenarios are coming soon, with shifting temperature zones and rising seas. In response, many people, plants, and animals will migrate, following favourable conditions north or south or inland as the case may be, significantly increasing competition for resources of all kinds.

I also fear authoritarian governments may prove more effective at providing protection for some, and avoiding utter chaos, than our precious but fragile democracies.

A role for tech giants

I think the internet and companies with global reach can play a role in combatting the worst impacts of climate change.

Some of the hyperscalers, telecom operators, and equipment companies have been leaders in reducing carbon emissions.

I hope the interconnectedness and massive computing power of companies like Meta and Alphabet can be used to solve these large-scale problems.

My last thought is the realisation that when I eventually ease into retirement and cut back on travel, I may never get a chance to personally thank all the friends and colleagues I have made along the way.

People who have assisted my career, believed in me, educated me, and made me think differently, smile, and laugh.

So, just in case, I'll say it here – thank you one and all – you made a difference to me.

It's also been fun.

Comments

[Sam Lucero]

What a great recap of a fascinating career (to date) - thank you for sharing this!