WDM and 100G: A Q&A with Infonetics' Andrew Schmitt

The WDM optical networking market grew 8 percent year-on-year, with spending on 100 Gigabit now accounting for a fifth of the WDM market. So claims the first quarter 2014 optical networking report from market research firm, Infonetics Research. Overall, the optical networking market was down 2 percent, due to the continuing decline of legacy SONET/SDH.

In a Q&A with Gazettabyte, Andrew Schmitt, principal analyst for optical at Infonetics Research, talks about the report's findings.

Q: Overall WDM optical spending was up 8% year-on-year: Is that in line with expectations?

Andrew Schmitt: It is roughly in line with the figures I use for trend growth but what is surprising is how there is no longer a fourth quarter capital expenditure flush in North America followed by a down year in the first quarter. This still happens in EMEA but spending in North America, particularly by the Tier-1 operators, is now less tied to calendar spending and more towards specific project timelines.

This has always been the case at the more competitive carriers. A good example of this was the big order Infinera got in Q1, 2014.

You refer to the growth in 100G in 2013 as breathtaking. Is this growth not to be expected as a new market hits its stride? Or does the growth signify something else?

I got a lot of pushback for aggressive 100G forecasts in 2010 and 2011 when everyone was talking about, and investing in, 40G. You can read a White Paper I wrote in early 2011 which turned out to be pretty accurate. 

My call was based on the fact that, fundamentally, coherent 100G shouldn’t cost more than 40G, and that service providers would move rapidly to 100G. This is exactly what has happened, outside AT&T, NTT and China which did go big with 40G. But even my aggressive 100G forecasts in 2012 and 2013 were too conservative.

I have just raised my 2014 100G forecast after meeting with Chinese carriers and understanding their plans. 100G will essentially take over almost all of the new installations in the core by 2016, worldwide, and that is when metro 100G will start. But there is too much hype on metro 100G right now given the cost, but within two years the price will be right for volume deployment by service providers.

There is so much 'blah blah blah' about video but 90 percent is cacheable. Cloud storage is not

You say the lion's share of 100G revenue is going to five companies: Alcatel-Lucent, Ciena, Cisco, Huawei, and Infinera. Most of the companies are North American. Is the growth mainly due to the US market (besides Huawei, of course). And if so, is it due to Verizon, AT&T and Sprint preparing for growing LTE traffic? Or is the picture more complex with cable operators, internet exchanges and large data centre players also a significant part of the 100G story, as Infinera claims.   

It’s a lot more complex than the typical smartphone plus video-bandwidth-tsunami narrative. Many people like to attach the wireless metaphor to any possible trend because it is the only area perceived as having revenue and profitability growth, and it has a really high growth rate. But something big growing at 35 percent adds more in a year than something small growing at 70 percent.

The reality is that wireless bandwidth, as a percentage of all traffic, is still small. 100G is being used for the long lines of the network today as a more efficient replacement for 10G and while good quantitative measures don’t exist, my gut tells me it is inter-data-centre traffic and consumer/ business to data centre traffic driving most of the network growth today.

I use cloud storage for my files. I’m a die-hard Quicken user with 15 years of data in my file. Every time I save that file, it is uploaded to the cloud – 100MB each time. The cloud provider probably shifts that around afterwards too. Apply this to a single enterprise user - think about how much data that is for just one person. There is so much 'blah blah blah' about video but 90 percent is cacheable. Cloud storage is not.

Each morning a hardware specialist must wake up and prove to the world that they still need to exist

Cisco is in this list yet does not seek much media attention about its 100G. Why is it doing well in the growing 100G market?

Cisco has a slice of customers that are fibre-poor who are always seeking more spectral efficiency. I also believe Cisco won a contract with Amazon in Q4, 2013, but hey, it’s not Google or Facebook so it doesn’t get the big press. But no one will dispute Amazon is the real king of public cloud computing right now.

You’ve got to do hard stuff that others can’t easily do or you are just a commodity provider

In the data centre world, there is a sense that the value of specialist hardware is diminishing as commodity platforms - servers and switches - take hold. The same trend is starting in telecoms with the advent of Network Functions Virtualisation (NFV) and software-defined networking (SDN). WDM is specialist hardware and will remain so. Can WDM vendors therefore expect healthy annual growth rates to continue for the rest of the decade?   

I am not sure I agree.

There is no reason transport systems couldn’t be white-boxed just like other parts of the network. There is an over-reaction to the impact SDN will have on hardware but there have always been constant threats to the specialist.

Each morning a hardware specialist must wake up and prove to the world that they still need to exist. This is why you see continued hardware vertical integration by some optical companies; good examples are what Ciena has done with partners on intelligent Raman amplification or what Infinera has done building a tightly integrated offering around photonic-integrated circuits for cheap regeneration. Or Transmode which takes a hacker’s approach to optics to offer customers better solutions for specific category-killer applications like mobile backhaul. Or you swing to the other side of the barbell, and focus on software, which appears to be Cyan’s strategy.

You’ve got to do hard stuff that others can’t easily do or you are just a commodity provider. This is why Cisco and Intel are investing in silicon photonics – they can use this as an edge against commodity white-box assemblers and bare-metal suppliers.

Comments

[JPW?]

"A good example of this was the big order Infinera got in Q1, 2014."

Windstream, or did someone else place a major INFN order in January?
http://www.lightreading.com/optical/100g/windstream-taps-infinera-for-national-buildout/d/d-id/708139

[PacketVortex]

Indeed this is an interesting read. Nicely written