China and the global PON market
China has become the world's biggest market for passive optical network (PON) technology even though deployments there have barely begun. That is because China, with approximately a quarter of a billion households, dwarfs all other markets. Yet according to market research firm Ovum, only 7% of Chinese homes were connected by year end 2011.
"In 2012, BOSAs [board-based PON optical sub-assemblies] will represent the majority versus optical transceivers for PON ONTs and ONUs"
Julie Kunstler, Ovum
Until recently Japan and South Korea were the dominant markets. And while PON deployments continue in these two markets, the rate of deployments has slowed as these optical access markets mature.
According to Ovum, slightly more than 4 million PON optical line terminals (OLTs) ports, located in the central office, were shipped in Asia Pacific in 2011, of which China accounted for the majority. Worldwide OLT shipments for the same period totaled close to 4.5 million. The fact that in China the ratio of OLT to optical network terminal (ONT), the end terminal at the home or building, deployed is relatively low highlights that in the Chinese market the significant growth in PON end terminals is still to come.
The strength of the Chinese market has helped local system vendors Huawei, ZTE and Fiberhome become leading global PON players, accounting for over 85% of the OLTs sold globally in 2011, says Julie Kunstler, principal analayst, optical components at Ovum. Moreover, around 60% of fibre-to-the-x deployments in Europe, Middle East and Africa were supplied by the Chinese vendors. The strongest non-Chinese vendor is Alcatel-Lucent.
Ovum says that the State Grid China Corporation, the largest electric utility company in China, has begun to deploy EPON for their smart grid trial deployments. PON is preferred to wireless technology because of its perceived ability to secure the data. This raises the prospect of two separate PON lines going to each home. But it remains to be seen, says Kunstler, whether this happens or whether the telcos and utilities share the access network.
"After China the next region that will have meaningful numbers is Eastern Europe, followed by South and Central America and we have already seen it in places like Russia,” says Kunstler. Indeed FTTx deployments in Eastern Europe already exceed those in Western Europe.
EPON and GPON
In China both Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit PON (GPON) are being deployed. Ovum estimates that in 2011, 65% of equipment shipments were EPON while GPON represented 35% GPON in China.
China Telecom was the first of the large operators in China to deploy PON and began with EPON. Ovum is now seeing deployments of GPON and in the 3rd quarter of 2012, GPON OLT deployments have overtaken EPON.
China Mobile, not a landline operator, started deployments later and chose GPON. But these GPON deployments are on top of EPON, says Kunstler: "EPON is still heavily deployed by China Telecom, while China Mobile is doing GPON but it is a much smaller player." Moreover, Chinese PON vendors also supplying OLTs that support EPON and GPON, allowing local decisions to be made as to which PON technology is used.
One trend that is impacting the traditional PON optical transceiver market is the growing use of board-based PON optical sub-assemblies (BOSAs). Such PON optics dispenses with the traditional traditional optical module form factor in the interest of trimming costs.
“A number of the larger, established ODMs [original design manufacturers] have begun to ship BOSA-based PON CPEs,” says Kunstler. In 2012, BOSAs will represent the majority versus optical transceivers for PON ONTs/ONUs.” says Kunstler.
10 Gigabit PON
Ovum says that there has been very few deployments of next generation 10G EPON and XG-PON, the 10 Gigabit version of GPON.
"There have been small amounts of 10G [EPON] in China," says Kunstler. "We are talking hundreds or thousands, not the tens of thousands [of units]."
One reason for this is the relative high cost of 10 Gigabit PON which is still in its infancy. Another is the growing shift to deploy fibre-to-the-home (FTTh) versus fibre-to-the-building deployments in China. 10 Gigabit PON makes more sense in multi-dwelling units where the incoming signal is split between apartments. Moving to 10G EPON boosts the incoming bandwidth by 10x while XG-PON would increase the bandwidth by 4x. "The need for 10 Gig for multi-dwelling units is not as strong as originally thought," says Kunstler.
It is a chicken-and-egg issue with 10G PON, says Kunstler. The price of 10G optics would go down if there was more demand, and if there was more demand, the optical vendors would work on bringing down cost. "10G GPON will happen but will take longer," says Kunstler, with volumes starting to ramp from 2014.
However, Ovum thinks that a stronger market application for 10G PON will be for supporting wireless backhaul. The market research company is seeing early deployments of PON for wireless backhaul especially for small cell sites (e.g. picocells). Small cells are typically deployed in urban areas which is where FTTx is deployed. It is too early to know the market forecast for this application but PON will join the list of communications technologies supporting wireless backhaul.
Challenges
Despite the huge expected growth in deployments, driven by China, challenges remain for PON optical transceiver and chip vendors.
The margins on optics and PON silicon continue to be squeezed. ODMs using BOSAs are putting pricing pressure on PON transceiver costs while the vertical integration strategy of system vendors such as Huawei, which also develops some of its own components squeezes, out various independent players. Huawei has its own silicon arm called HiSilicon and its activities in PON has impacted the chip opportunity of the PON merchant suppliers.
"Depending upon who the customer is, depending upon the pricing, depending on the features and the functions, Huawei will make the decision whether they are using HiSilicon or whether they are using merchant silicon from an independent vendor, for example," says Kunstler.
There has been consolidation in the PON chip space as well as several new players. For example, Broadcom acquired Teknouvs and Broadlight while Atheros acquired Opulan and Atheros was then acquired by Qualcomm. Marvell acquired a very small start-up and is now competing with Atheros and Broadcom. Most recently, Realtek is rumored to have a very low-cost PON chip.
Chinese optical component vendors set for change
“If [Chinese optical component] companies get $100m from an IPO, they have the resources to really do things”
Vladimir Kozlov, LightCounting
The local OC players have benefitted from the prolonged growth of China’s economy, the rise of global telecom system vendors Huawei and ZTE, and the significant expansion in Chinese operators’ networks. But such domestic growth will not continue and will likely lead to a shake-up of the local OC firms.
“They [Chinese OC players] all have the same industry pitch: they all have huge capacity, they have tons of people and they are growing fast but when you research that, you uncover different approaches to doing business,” says Vladimir Kozlov, CEO at LightCounting.
The market research firm has identified several classes of OC player. There are quite a few mid-size companies that focus on niche local opportunities. “Very few of them have an ambition of becoming a global player,” says Kozlov. “They have been set up with local government support, primarily with the aim of employing local people and being involved in local telecom projects.”
But there are other players with broader ambitions and resources. Companies such as HiSense Broadband and HG Genuine, acknowledged manufacturers of electronics and consumer products, have formed OC business units recognising the growth potential of optical communications.
Another category that Western firms will do well to note, says Kozlov, is the Chinese OC players with a long history such as WTD and Accelink. “WTD is 30-years-old and grew from the Wuhan Research Institute that is also a founding body for Chinese system vendor FiberHome,” says Kozlov. WTD has been growing steadily and the pace has accelerated in the last two years. “WTD is becoming more aggressive and is gaining market share while Accelink has a successful IPO that brought in $100m,” he says.
Other companies will likely follow Accelink’s example and raise money through IPOs. But what will be interesting is whether such companies continue to focus on the Chinese market or start addressing issues such as what technologies they are missing and even make acquisitions, he says.
“A lot more companies will have access to financial markets as the regulation that limits how many companies can become public is relaxed,” says Kozlov. “If [Chinese OC] companies get [US] $100m from an IPO, they have the resources to really do things.”
“It is unlikely that Huawei will keep on growing as fast as it did over recent years and continue to take market share from Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and others for much longer”
Yet another Chinese OC player segment is start-ups funded by venture capitalists (VCs). One example is Innolight which has received funding from local VCs and a Western company. “VCs will push firms to be as ambitious as possible as they are after returns,” says Kozlov. Interest among the financial investment community is also growing given the rise of the stock price of the OC industry’s leading firms in the last year. Such interest will likely lead to investment and restructuring of local Chinese firms, he says.
Chinese OC vendors have been helped by the rise of the system vendors Huawei and ZTE. The Chinese equipment makers have been disruptive in adopting technology quickly while reducing their costs. But having become global players, Huawei and ZTE now face their own challenges.
“Both [system vendors] companies have caught up on the technology and the next step for them is to see whether they can become leaders in technology and stay ahead of an Alcatel-Lucent or a Ciena,” says Kozlov. “They have the ambition but can they do it?” Kozlov notes that Chinese companies are now highly active with patent applications: “Chinese firms recognise that this is how they will achieve a longer-term advantage and protect their own technologies.”
Another challenge facing the system vendors, common to many technology industries, is that no one player dominates a market. “Usually three global companies share the dominance; the same if it is a local market,” says Kozlov. “It is therefore unlikely that Huawei will keep on growing as fast as it did over recent years and continue to take market share from Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and others for much longer.”
This will require Huawei and ZTE to adapt to more moderate growth in future. Meanwhile North American and European system vendors have long responded to the competitive threat, moving their manufacturing to Asia Pacific - and China in particular - to benefit from reduced operating costs. For the Chinese OC vendors, yet to become global players, the chance to be as disruptive as the Chinese system vendors has gone since leading OC vendors have established local manufacturing.
Can Western companies learn from the experience of Chinese system and OC vendors? Kozlov is not so sure.
The Chinese have proved adept at learning the business and mastering new technologies. The examples of Huawei and ZTE that have disrupted the market by being as efficient as possible have proved a wake-up call for Western companies. “I don’t see anything beyond that that Western companies can learn; it is still the Chinese that are learning from Western companies,” says Kozlov. “This does not mean that the Western companies have nothing to worry about; there is plenty of room for improvement in the industry supply chain.”
Looking at the decade ahead, Kozlov expects Huawei to have a much greater penetration in the North American telecom market. “And as it [Huawei] builds up its own intellectual property, it will be better able to compete with Cisco Systems and H-P in the datacom market,” says Kozlov. And as Chinese companies get access to greater finance he also expects they will start acquiring Western firms to gain expertise and greater access to markets.