It is rare for a trade magazine article to receive so much coverage 50 years after publication. But then it is not often that an observation made in an article becomes a law; a law that explained how electronics would become a transformative industry.
Chip pioneer Gordon E. Moore’s article appeared in the magazine Electronics in 1965. Dr. Moore was the director of the R&D labs at Fairchild Semiconductor, an early maker of transistors. Moore went on to co-found Intel, then a memory company, becoming its second CEO after Robert Noyce.
Moore’s article was written in the early days of integrated circuits. At the time, silicon wafers were one inch in diameter and integrating 50 components on a chip was deemed a state-of-the-art design.
Moore observed that, at any given time, there was an ideal number of components that achieved a minimum cost. Add a few more components and the balance would be tipped: the design would become overly complex, wafer yields would go down and costs would rise.
His key insight, later to become known as Moore’s law, was that integrated circuit complexity at this minimum cost was growing over time. Moore expected the complexity to double each year for at least another decade.
In his article he predicted that, by 1970, the manufacturing cost per component would be a tenth of the cost in 1965. Extrapolating the trend further, Moore believed that “by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000 components.” Moore was overly optimistic, but only just: in 1975, Intel was developing a chip with 32,000 transistors.
“Perhaps we can say that the future of silicon photonics is the future of electronics itself.”
One decade after his article, Moore amended his law to a doubling of complexity every 24 months. By then the industry had started talking about transistors rather than components - circuit elements such as transistors, resistors and capacitors - after alighting on complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) technology to make the bulk of its chips. And in the years that followed, the period of complexity-doubling settled at every 18 months.
Moore has received less credit for his article's remarkable foresight regarding the importance of integrated circuits, especially when, in 1965, their merits were far from obvious. Such devices would bring a proliferation of electronics, he said, “pushing this science into many new areas”.
He foresaw home computers “or at least terminals connected to a central computer’, automatic control for automobiles and even mobile phones - ‘personal portable communications equipment’ as he called them. The biggest potential of ICs, he said, would be in the making of systems, with Moore highlighting computing, and telephone communications and switches.
The shrinking transistor
The shrinking of the transistor has continued ever since. And the technological and economic consequences have been extraordinary.
As a recent 50th anniversary Moore’s law article in IEEE Spectrum explains (link above), the cost of making a transistor in 1965 was $30 at today’s costs, in 2015 it is one billionth of a dollar. And in 2014, the semiconductor industry made 250 billion billion transistors, more transistors than had been made in all the years of the semiconductor industry up to 2011.
But the shrinking of the transistor cannot continue indefinitely, especially as certain transistor dimensions approach the atomic scale. As a result, many of the benefits that resulted with each shift to a new, smaller feature-sized CMOS process no longer hold.
To understand why, some understanding of CMOS and in particular, the MOS field effect transistor (MOSFET), is required.
Current flow between a MOSFET’s two terminals - the source and the drain - is controlled by a voltage placed on a third, electrical contact known as a gate. The gate comprises a thin layer of metal oxide, an oxide insulator on which sits a metal contact.
Several key dimensions define the MOSFET including the thickness of the oxide, the width of the source and the drain, and the gate length - the distance between the source and the drain.
Dennard scaling, named after IBM engineer and inventor of the DRAM, Robert Dennard, explains how the key dimensions of the transistor can all shrunk by the same factor, generation after generation. It is the effect of this scaling that makes Moore’s law work.
From the 1970s to the early 2000s, shrinking the transistor’s key dimension by a fixed factor returned a guaranteed bounty. More transistors could be placed on a chip allowing more on-chip integration, while each transistor became cheaper.
In turn, for a given chip area, the chip’s power density - the power consumption over a given area - remained constant. There may be more transistors crammed into a fixed area but the power each one consumes is less.
The predictable era of scaling transistors, after 50 years, is coming to an end and the industry is set to change
The transistor gate length feature size is used to define the CMOS technology or process node. In 1980, the minimum feature size was around 3 microns, nowadays CMOS chips typically use a 28 nanometer feature size - a 100 fold reduction. The metal oxide thickness has also been reduced one hundred times over the years.
But in the last decade Dennard scaling has come to an end.
The gate’s oxide thickness can no longer be trimmed as its dimensions are only a few atoms thick. The voltage threshold, the voltage applied to the gate to turn the transistor on, has also stopped shrinking, which in turn has stopped the scaling of the transistor’s upper voltage.
Why is this important? Because no longer being able to scale all these key parameters has meant that while smaller transistors can still be made, their switching speed is no longer increasing, nor is the power density constant.
Moreover, the very success of the relentless scaling means that the transistors are so tiny that new effects have come into play.
Transistors now leak current even when they are in the ‘off’ state. This means they consume power not only when they are being switched at high speed - the active power - but also they consume leakage power when they are off due to this current.
Process engineers now must work harder, to develop novel transistor designs and new materials to limit the leakage current. A second issue associated with the prolonged success of Dennard scaling is variability. Transistors are now less reliable and their performance less predictable.
The end of Dennard scaling means that the chip companies’ motivation to keep shrinking transistors is more to do with device cost rather than performance.
If, before, the power density stayed fixed with each new generation of CMOS process, more recently it has been the cost of manufacturing of a given area of silicon that has stayed fixed.
As the IEEE Spectrum Moore’s law article explains, this has been achieved by a lot of engineering ingenuity and investment. Device yield has gone up from 20 percent in the 1970s to between 80 and 90 percent today. The size of the silicon wafers on which the chips are made has also increased, from 8 inches to 12 inches. And while the lithography tools now cost one hundred-fold more than 35 years ago, they also pattern the large wafers one hundred times faster.
But now even the cost of making a transistor has stopped declining, according to The Linley Group, with the transition point being around the 28nm and 20nm CMOS.
Silicon manufacturing innovation will continue, and transistors will continue to shrink. Leading chip companies have 14nm CMOS while research work is now at a 7nm CMOS process. But not everyone will make use of the very latest processes, given how these transistors will be more costly.
Beyond Moore’s law
The industry continues to debate how many years Moore’s law still has. But whether Moore’s law has another 10 years or not, it largely does not matter.
Moore’s law has done its job and has brought the industry to a point where it can use billions of transistors for its chip designs.
But to keep expanding computing performance, new thinking will be required at many levels, spanning materials, components, circuit design, architectures and systems design.
The predictable era of scaling transistors, after 50 years, is coming to an end and the industry is set to change.
IBM announced last year its plan to invest US $3 billion over five years to extend chip development. Areas it is exploring include quantum computing, neurosynaptic computing, III-V technologies, carbon nanotubes, graphene, next-generation low-power transistors, and silicon photonics.
Silicon photonics
The mention of silicon photonics returns us to Gordon Moore’s 1965 article. The article starts with a bang: “The future of integrated electronics is the future of electronics itself".
Can the same be said of photonics?
Is the future of integrated photonics the future of photonics itself?
Daryl Inniss, vice president of Ovum’s components practice, argues this is certainly true. Photonics may not have one optical building block like electronics has the transistor, nor is there any equivalent of Dennard scaling whereby shrinking photonic functions delivers continual performance benefits.
But photonic integration does bring cost benefits, and developments in optical interconnect and long-haul transmission are requiring increasing degrees of integration, the sort of level of component integration associated with the chip industry at the time of Moore’s article.
And does the following statement hold true? “The future of silicon photonics is the future of photonics itself.”
“I think silicon photonics is bigger than photonics itself,” says Inniss. “Where do you draw the line between photonics and electronics? IBM, Intel and STMicroelectronics are all suppliers of electronics.”
Inniss argues that silicon photonics is an electronics technology. “Perhaps we can say that the future of silicon photonics is the future of electronics itself.”